When asked whether the Reno-Tahoe area could experience a firestorm similar to the devastation the Los Angeles area endured in January, Christine Albano’s short answer: an unequivocal yes.
She should know: The associate research professor at the Desert Research Institute co-authored a new study that, as DRI puts it, “examines how a warming climate is creating an atmosphere more prone to extreme weather. The researchers introduce the idea of an ‘expanding atmospheric sponge’ to describe how higher levels of greenhouse gases create an atmosphere more prone to both extreme rainfall and intense droughts.”
As for her longer answer about the possibility of a Los Angeles-like firestorm here: “We have very similar sort of precipitation regimes here in Reno, as seen in Southern California, with atmospheric rivers driving the wetness of the winter—and then we’re otherwise relatively dry,” Albano said during a recent interview with the RN&R. “We also have wintertime down-slope wind events here that are not quite as severe as Santa Ana winds, but that is definitely an ingredient that we can experience here. … We have development in the wildland-urban interface, so all the ingredients are there for similar patterns here.”
A climate-change-caused “hydroclimate whiplash,” as Albano and her fellow scientists call it, is creating conditions where the atmosphere—and, therefore, plants and the earth—are incredibly dry. Add in winds that can send embers long distances, and the result is unprecedented fire conditions.
“We have variable precipitation here in Reno, and that will likely always be the case,” Albano said. “The difference now is that with that warmer atmosphere, the drier times are getting drier. On any hot, dry day, the atmosphere is going to be pulling and sucking as much water as it can from the plants and the soils, and that is what’s setting us up for higher wildfire risk—having those fuels be drier. With warming temperatures, we can also get more extreme precipitation storm events, but even in the absence of that, it’s the warming, drying side that’s really driving the key differences we’re seeing now.”
So what can local governments and residents do? Albano and Maureen McCarthy, a DRI colleague, are working with local emergency-management agencies to come up with a worst-case firestorm plan, much like they did with a worst-case winter-storm hypothetical called “ARkStorm.”
“About 10 years ago, we had an effort in the Tahoe, Reno, Carson area where we presented this extreme winter-storm scenario to the emergency management community and the business community, and said, ‘OK, this is what happens over the course of a month. What keeps you up at night? What are you concerned about?’” Albano said.
The goal is to create and identify better evacuation routes and emergency-response plans should the worst-case firestorm scenario come to be. Albano also said local governments should to work on mitigation strategies regarding both where and how homes and businesses are built.
She recommended that homeowners consider “hardening” their structures by using more fire-resistant materials, replacing roofs made of flammable materials, and changing landscaping to include as much defensible space as possible.
“Our houses have a lot of fuel,” she said, adding that taking such measures can be important to fire-weary insurance companies. Albano said she lives in Truckee, and recently lost her homeowners insurance.
As the Los Angeles area recovers from the fires that took at least 29 lives and destroyed or damaged more than 18,000 structures in January, Albano said Reno-area residents would be wise to learn some lessons from the unprecedented firestorm.
“It was a reminder that fire seasons are getting longer,” she said.
I asked a follow-up question: Is it ever not fire season now? Albano paused for a moment—and then shook her head.